Getting the Behomoth - 15% chance

Bubble · Oct 1st 2017, 9:51pm

Hey,

this is a question to AncientCompiler

You told me that the chance of receiving a Behomoth from the Mysterious Treasure Chest - Behomoth is at 15%.

If I use my "math skills" I come to this assumption:

1-0,15 = 0,85
0,85^(25) = 0,01719..... => 1,72% Chance that I dont get a Behomoth after 25 tries
1-0,01719 = 0,98281...... => 98,28% Chance that I get a Behomoth after 25 tries

So, do you think that if I open 25 of those treasure chests that I will get the Behomoth?

P.S. I want the Behomoth so badly

Thanks in advance!

bogidogi200 · Oct 2nd 2017, 1:21am

nice idea XD

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 5:35am

bogidogi200 wrote:

nice idea XD

I need AncientCompiler to answer this^^ xD

Frosch · Oct 2nd 2017, 1:05pm

just try it!

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 1:10pm

Frosch wrote:

just try it!

I want to get an answer from AncientCompiler

I want to be sure that I get the Beho after 25 opening^^

If it happened that I dont get it, there would be something wrong with the 15% chance^^

Frosch · Oct 2nd 2017, 1:26pm

u still can hit the 1,6%

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 1:28pm

Frosch wrote:

u still can hit the 1,6%

It is important to me to hear that these 15% do REALLY belong to the behomoth^^

I just need an answer from AncientCompiler if my 98,28% is correct^^

AncientCompiler · Oct 2nd 2017, 2:44pm

Howdy!

Therefore, this is a probability calculus, this calculated value is a reference to the probability that can but does not have to occur.
So you can get one in 5 boxes, in one box or in 30 boxes, which is a matter of luck.

Of course, the probability of 25 cases is very high to get one, but it is not even possible to give a guarantee on the receipt of 100 cases.
Probability calculations are always very hypothetical.

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 3:44pm

AncientCompiler wrote:

Howdy!

Therefore, this is a probability calculus, this calculated value is a reference to the probability that can but does not have to occur.
So you can get one in 5 boxes, in one box or in 30 boxes, which is a matter of luck.

Of course, the probability of 25 cases is very high to get one, but it is not even possible to give a guarantee on the receipt of 100 cases.
Probability calculations are always very hypothetical.

Thanks

I will open 25 cases soon so still wish me luck, pls

Coccolino · Oct 2nd 2017, 3:46pm

Bubble wrote:

AncientCompiler wrote:

Howdy!

Therefore, this is a probability calculus, this calculated value is a reference to the probability that can but does not have to occur.
So you can get one in 5 boxes, in one box or in 30 boxes, which is a matter of luck.

Of course, the probability of 25 cases is very high to get one, but it is not even possible to give a guarantee on the receipt of 100 cases.
Probability calculations are always very hypothetical.

Thanks
I will open 25 cases soon so still wish me luck, pls

good luck

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 3:50pm

Believe me I will get a Behomoth^^

It is the last thing that misses in my appearance upgrade xD

bogidogi200 · Oct 2nd 2017, 3:52pm

bubble you try this already
Getting the Behomoth

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 4:34pm

bogidogi200 wrote:

bubble you try this already
Getting the Behomoth

I will tell u guys If it happened

SlaveToTheRhythm · Oct 2nd 2017, 7:05pm

you must have to miss math

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 7:06pm

SlaveToTheRhythm wrote:

you must have to miss math

Tell me why?

This makes no sense xD

SlaveToTheRhythm · Oct 2nd 2017, 7:08pm

luck is not cumulative

Bubble · Oct 2nd 2017, 7:11pm

SlaveToTheRhythm wrote:

luck is not cumulative

but chance is

SlaveToTheRhythm · Oct 2nd 2017, 7:30pm

taked?

Bubble · Oct 3rd 2017, 1:35pm

Haha I opened 32 boxes and received 4 behomots :DDD

Frosch · Oct 3rd 2017, 1:51pm

Glückwunsch

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