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You are assuming too much stuff for your calculations and that's not how probability works. First of all, 6% * 1.35 is 8.1%, not 8.2% [small error, doesn't really matter]. That is indeed 1 in ~12.3, but that doesn't mean anything yet. If you use the probability formulas, you can calculate that in 12 tries with a 8.1% chance of success, you would have an overall ~63.7% [1- (91.9/100)^12] chance of success. It only passes 99%, which is almost a guarantee of success at 55 tries. Another problem is …