xDD it's all about luck man, used once ~300tincs and didn't even get one +20.

u cant calculate that man

i once used 2 tints and i got a +20
other time i used 150 and i got a +11

its all about luck

3 tincs 1 +22

150 tincs 1 +14

10 tincs +23

1500 tincs +21

The best way to upp thing is having a backup for what you're trying to upp, like, don't get weaponless xD Being that it is about luck, you could also invest in refined weapons and armors with low lvl up and try to upp those, then you can get more profit. At least that's what I've been doing...


I'm weaponless now, tho xD

No just go in with main stuff YOLO

The reason why you would buy EQ direct for a bigger value than upping itself is quite simple: It's like buying decisions in real life! There are often services or even products which are more expensive then creating/fullfilling them by your own, but you still get them because in most cases you want to safe time, stress or you just lack ability in getting the desired thing by your own (e.g. a part of your car is broken but you can't fix it by yourself because you have no engineering knowledge at all, so you bring it to a car garage).

Now back to 4Story: People buy EQ direct to safe time and avoid disappointments. If you buy it direct, you "only" have to get the gold by farming, trading or whatever. It's a mostly linear way of working. If you go Upgrading now by yourself, you have to fullfill the first step, anyway, to get Gold for buying Upgrade content (or wasting even more time in farming Tincs by opening Tears). Additionally you have now to "waste time" (I know there are also players liking the feeling of gambling while upping, so for them it's no waste at all) again on the upping process itself. Only after that you have your product, BUT without any garantee of success.

On the one hand you can have luck and got now new EQ with a significant reduction of used money. On the other hand, it can fail and you have wasted only a fraction of money which you had needed for buying the EQ directly, but you still lost it and on top you wasted your time for getting the gold and upping. There will be always people preferring fast success by buying more expensive items and other ones trying to safe money and doing things by themselves.

And, as everyone else said: It's luck, you can use as many maths as you want, you can't bring these statistics in a common principle. In my case, I failed upping from +17 or +19 so often, but my actual weapon went 15-18-21. And back to your formula: Imagine having hell of bad luck and wasting nearly 160 Tincs (4 tries with your example of ca. 40 tincs) for NOT getting the EQ - in this case it would have been more efficient to get the item per shop.

fact is, if you need something it wont get higher then +18
If you up bullshit like a short sword it gets +24

Cause buying +20 doesn t concern risks.. Is 100%

You have the Money and ez, but this method Is more expensive than upping but Is the safe One.


Upping Is more cheaper but you are concerned with risk( you can fails over and over again)

So mathematically speaking It s Just lucks

Its better to upgrade when you have a backup item, for example i have my rich +20 and i´m trying to upp another to +20 to sell it or to keep it if it upps to +21.

You can also afkfarm dung75 and sell everything, but no risk no gain

You are assuming too much stuff for your calculations and that's not how probability works.

First of all, 6% * 1.35 is 8.1%, not 8.2% [small error, doesn't really matter]. That is indeed 1 in ~12.3, but that doesn't mean anything yet. If you use the probability formulas, you can calculate that in 12 tries with a 8.1% chance of success, you would have an overall ~63.7% [1- (91.9/100)^12] chance of success. It only passes 99%, which is almost a guarantee of success at 55 tries. Another problem is that even if the upgrade goes through, the item won't always go all the way from +17 to +20, it could hit +18 or +19. You just assumed it always upgrades by 3 in your calculations, the chances would be even smaller [not sure how much, I don't know if it's a 1/3 for +3]. Then you assume it would take us 20 tinctures to get to +17, if we were extremely unlucky. I'm just gonna go with half of that, it would be hard to do the exact math for it, because of the problems I've already mentioned for upgrading to +20. You can't just add the tinctures it takes you to get to +17 once to the tinctures it takes you to try for +20. You need to get to +17 every time you wanna try to get +20, we need to multiply here. So, for example:

• You use up 10 tinctures to get to +17, you fail the 1st try for +20, the item degrades to +15 [another problem, I don't know the chances of it degrading/staying the same]
  
• You use 10 tinctures to get back to +17 again, you try to get +20 for the 2nd time and fail again ... etc.
  

As you can see, you would need to get back to +17 every time you fail to even try again. Even if we assume it's gonna take 12 tries (which is a ~63,7% chance of success, as I've already said), you would need 120 tinctures to get there. This is why the prices of highly upgraded items rise exponentially. To get to the next upgrade, you need to reach the one before it x times (the average number of times you fail the upgrade). The chances for a successful upgrade also get lower with each upgrade (at least for the high ones), which makes it even harder.

Basically, the math for this is pretty complicated, so there is no point in doing it. The current price is just an estimate based on the experiences of all the people who have done the upgrading process and briefly know how much it had cost them. That should actually make it pretty accurate, you can't really argue with it. It's not like everyone selling items is trying to make people overpay. If it was truly that much cheaper to make the items on your own, people would have figured that out and spread the info to others a long time ago. Then the expensive items wouldn't get sold, so the price would have to go down and so on until it's more or less correct.

tl;dr - you just got lucky