[Upgrading Guide] How many tinctures do I need?

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    • [Upgrading Guide] How many tinctures do I need?

      Hi guys!

      I remaked this guide into better perfection!
      Better calculations, better numbers! Less boring texts! Just my english is still bad... (I am sorry for that )

      So Guys! Have you question how many survival tinctures do you need?
      Upgrade or buy upgraded??? Are you interested to know what is better??

      Let's reveal it!

      btw. is it possible calculate someone's luck?
      Display Spoiler

      You can't say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 when she start upgrade item from +15.
      But if she will try upgrade more than one items her outcomes will alternate between luck and unluck
      So from calculations it is easily possible get only expected avarage


      But she can have perfect luck twice in a row, then true avarage will be very different from calculated expected avarage.

      That is true. But if she will upgrade 100 items then expected avarage will be very close to true avarage. With 1000000 items the calculated expected avarage will be very very accurate.

      But still we cannot say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 tomorrow. The numbers from calculations aren't prophency, it is only expected (recommended number, how many tinctures you shall prepare).

      Additionaly I am calculating with very important phenomenon, which I am calling "sureness". With 0% sureness Shiraella doesn't need tinctures. But because of 0% sureness She must have the highest luck (infinity) for her success.
      Vice versa with sureness 100% she need infinity tinctures because of that 100% sureness.

      So if you 2 days ago used 50000 tinctures and item wasn't even +21, then you had very very high unluck and in that moment your "sureness" for successful upgrading needed to be very high too.

      Again I am not calculating how many tinctures do you will need tomorrow at 21:56, I am calculating overall how many expected tinctures could you need.




      Tinctures per upgrade:

      If you are feeling your luck is medium, here is table of "How many tinctures do I need" with sureness only 50% !!

      WITHOUT EVENTEVENT +35%
      UpgradeLuck potion x2Luck potion x2.5Luck potion x3Luck potion x2Luck potion x2.5Luck potion x3
      From +130.6 tinctures needed0.3 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed0.4 tinctures needed0.1 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed
      From +143.52.72.22.92.31.9
      From +153.12.41.92.62.11.7
      From +164.63.62.93.93.12.6
      From +175.44.33.54.63.73.1
      From +1811.28.97.39.57.86.5
      From +1934.327.422.829.12420.3
      From +2034.327.422.829.12420.3
      From +2134.327.422.829.12420.3
      From +2234.327.422.829.12420.3
      From +231713.511.214.411.810




      What? Cursed by unluck? Ok, here is table with high sureness 70% (It is very high sureness. Numbers of tinctures needed will be crazy! 100% sureness = infinity tinctures needed!)

      WITHOUT EVENTWITH EVENT +35%
      UpgradeLuck potion x2Luck potion x2.5Luck potion x3Luck potion x2Luck potion x2.5Luck potion x3
      From +131 tincture needed0.6 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed0.7 tinctures needed0.2 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed
      From +146.14.73.85.14.13.4
      From +155.44.23.44.53.63
      From +1686.35.16.75.44.5
      From +179.47.46.17.96.45.4
      From +1819.515.412.816.513.511.4
      From +1959.647.639.550.641.635.3
      From +2059.647.639.550.641.635.3
      From +2159.647.639.550.641.635.3
      From +2259.647.639.550.641.635.3
      From +2329.523.519.52520.517.4



      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

      HOW MANY TINCTURES DO I NEED IN TOTAL FROM +11 TO +24 ??????

      Is it worth buy serendipity potions x3? When should I use them?
      Or is upgrading scam?! Is better buy upgraded?!!
      ANSWEARS!!! Here we go!

      Ideal upgrading chain: +11, +13, +15, +18, +21
      If item is +12, use Scroll of Reflection!!

      For successful "ideal upgrading chain" we need additional luck...
      So into next table I will show you numbers of total tinctures needed with successful "Ideal upgrading chain" and with very bad upgrading chain (+11, +13, +14, +16, +18, +21).

      AND THATS NOT ALL!!! You will see how many golds it cost and how good is using serendipity potions x3 with price 60g "From +18" and "From +21"

      First Table is without upgrading event.

      >>Numbers are total from +11 including upgrading fails<<
      So if you are looking at line "From +21", it including multiple previous upgrading from +11

      Ideal chainBad chain
      UpgradeTincturesPotions + scrollsGoldsTincturesPotions + scrollsGolds
      From +11010.2g010.2g
      From +1313,21,94g13,21,94g
      From +155.51710,5g236441,9g
      From +1878220145,4g4821354897.9g
      potion x353151539.7g3309271054.6g
      From +21278778115185g1706747845.731756.6g
      potion x3187552554852.4g114833219122729.9g




      Here is table with UPGRADING EVENT +35%!

      Ideal chainBad chain
      UpgradeTincturesPotions + scrollsGoldsTincturesPotions + scrollsGolds
      From +11010.2g010.2g
      From +1312.81.78g12.41.78g
      From +154148g154628.8g
      From +185215398g278819525.7g
      Potion x337110462.4g200590770.4g
      From +21158746562994.4g84202473415893.2g
      Potion x3112332963339g59611751012470.4g



      Tinctures: 1,3g
      potion x2 + scroll: 0,200g
      Serendipity potion x3: 60g
      --------------------------------------------

      So as you can see in tables there is short guide how to upgrade item with CHEAPEST WAY!!

      1. Prepare good luck. How? I don't know, but you need atleast luck capable to roll atleast 4 with dice.

      2. Even with bad luck DON'T USE serendipity potion x3 when you are upgrading item from +18

      3. With upgrade event using serendipity potion x3 when upgrading from +21 is pretty big waste (in bigger event = bigger waste). It is usefull ONLY for cursed by cruel despair

      4. Numbers +13, +15, +18, +21 are your best friends!

      5. If you wanna +20, Total upgrades with finale from +17 is TWICE EASIER. But from +17 you can get semi-finished product +18, bad number +19 or your wanted number +20. This way is not bad, but can be.

      6. If you really really wanna +24, maybe the best way is buy or prepare more items +21, lot of serendipity potions x3, lot of Assistent's formula (crafting this formula cost 46 well watters... So probably 200g per one) and wait for big upgrading event.

      7. As you can see on tables, "upp event +35%". That percent looks too little, but actually it is very potent event which can save you hundreds golds even with bad luck.

      8. +19 is very bad number. With success you can get +22, but it can be +21 or +20. Chance is 3x lower than upgrading from +18. I'd rather not recommend to upgrade from +19.


      QESTION: Upgrade or buy upgraded?
      MY ANSWEAR: Don't upgrade non-pvp items! Upgrading epic weapons and pvp gears is OK but I'm afraid it is not sure fast way to get rich. What do you think about that question?


      If you wanna calculate with own numbers, use or check this:
      Display Spoiler

      1. How many tinctures do I need for single upgrading?

      Log( 1 - sureness ) / log( 1 - chance of success × event modifier - chance of success × serendipity potion modifier )

      sureness, chance and modifiers are in percentage, but you must write it in non-percentage. 100% = 1, 35% = 0.35, ....

      Chance of success: if upgrade chance is 35%, then write 35
      event modifier: if upp event +35%, then write 0.35!
      Serendipity potion modifier: if you are using x2, then write 2



      Here is where I found formula
      Display Spoiler

      We can calculate it by mathematical inequalities:
      1-(0.3)^x >= 1-0.5
      default chance 30%
      modified by number of trying
      for more chance
      than 50%
      For faster calculation we can edit mathematical inequalities to formula:

      log(1 - 0.5) / (log(1 - 0.3)


      2. How many total tinctures?
      Display Spoiler

      This is pretty complicated calculation, because this calculation includes upgrade fails. I spent pretty lot of hours to create easy calculation formula :D


      From +13 you need 0.6 tinctures
      From +15 you need 3.1 tinctures
      From +18 you need 11.2 tinctures

      a = 0.6
      b = 3.1
      c = 11.2

      Total from +15 is: a + b(a+1) = 0.6 +3.1(0.6 + 1) = 5.56

      Remember 5.56 as B (because we finished with letter "b")

      Total from +18 is: B + c( B + 1) = ......

      In words: previous outcome + number of tinctures for next upgrading phase × (previous outcome + 1)

      And next phase and next phase until final upgrading. It is possible write only one calculation, but I think it will be more complicated

      3. How many total potions and scrolls?
      Display Spoiler

      That is complicated too.

      From +11 you must use it first time
      From +13 you need 0.6 scrolls + potions
      From +15 you need 3.1 scrolls + potions
      From +18 you need 11.2 scrolls + potions

      n0 = 1
      a = 0.6
      b = 3.1
      c = 11.2

      From +11: n0 = 1
      From +13: previous outcome + a × previous outcome + a + 1 = 1 + 1×0.6 + 0.6 + 1
      From +15: previous outcome + b × previous outcome + b + 1
      etc..
      etc.. until final upgrading




      There is Excel auto-calculator without download needed ;)


      I uploaded original Microsoft Excel auto-calculator in better quality too, but you will need Microsoft Office. (Bonus table has been fixed)
      Files
      • 4AncientUpp.zip

        (12.84 kB, downloaded 223 times, last: )

      The post was edited 58 times, last by Shiraella: Fixed first Excel auto-calculator ().

    • EDIT: this is old post. Useless

      Here is table for upgrading without upp event and special potions + sureness 90%


      Sureness 50%Sureness 70%Sureness 90%
      From +110 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed0 tinctures needed
      From +121.93.46.5
      From +130.611.9
      From +143.5611
      From +153.15.410.3
      From +164.6815.2
      From +175.49.418
      From +181119.537.2
      From +1934.359.6113
      From +2034.359.6113
      From +2134.359.6113
      From +2234.359.6113
      From +231729.556.4
      From +24already maxedalready maxedalready maxed

      The post was edited 14 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • EDIT: this is old post, useless.

      Safe calculation by microsoft excel. Calculations 7x checked. This table 7x checked and fixed

      here is table for sureness 50%.

      Edit: Event +35% and event +75% is with serendipity potion x2
      Edit 2: if you wanna sureness 70% just multiply numbers of tinctures needed in tables by 2.

      event +35%with luck x2.5with luck x3event +75%with luck x2.5with luck x3
      From +130.2 tinctures0 tinctures0 tinctures0 tinctures0 tinctures0 tinctures
      From +142.51.91.51.81.41
      From +152.21.71.31.61.20.9
      From +163.32.622.51.91.5
      From +173.932.52.92.31.8
      From +188.26.55.46.34.94
      From +1925.32016.819.515.512.8
      From +2025.32016.819.515.512.8
      From +2125.32016.819.515.512.8
      From +2225.32016.819.515.512.8
      From +2312.4108.29.67.66.3

      The post was edited 17 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • ImAphoenix wrote:

      For the +13 its wrong

      Without event 35% * 100% isnt 70 and even with event its not 94.5%

      35% * 100% is 35% + 3.5point which is 38.5%
      XD thanks for reply. Yeah..
      Seredepity potion has info "doubles" or better seredepity potions has number x2.5 or x3. So then it is much easier. :D
      up events has info "+35% item upgrade event". So now I can put here joke too. 30% +35% = 75%.. "WHOOO!!!"
      But it is +% of non-percent number :D

      Edit: (did I really wrote 75%? ahhh.. LOL. 30+35 is 65% xD How I said, my brain is noob)

      Laerze wrote:

      You guys are way too deep into upping , its a scam guys dont upp
      :D Guy can say "wow, 48 tinctures and I have pvp armor +20 with 90g price!!!" but that guy can momentaly have very bad luck, so he can throw away 150 tinctures + 200+ scrolls and potions and then... feelsbadman :D

      The post was edited 3 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • ImAphoenix wrote:

      I dont understand your calcul xD
      30% + 30% isnt 60% bro
      It was my joke. :D
      I can write next joke:
      35% = 0.35 and 100% = 1. => 0.35 * 1 = 0.35 again

      You wrote "35% * 100% is 35% + 3.5point which is 38.5%". I dont understand this calcul too xD.

      Chance 35% (number 0.35) is increased by +35%. That chance "35%" is increased completly, so we are working with 35% as with a non-percent number
      So 0.35 * 0.35 = 0.1225
      Number 0.35 is increased by +0.1225 = 0.4725 = 47.25%. Chance 47.25%

      Chance 47.25% is increased by +100%
      0.4725 * 1 = 0.4725
      Chance 0.4725 is increased by +0.4725 = 0.945 = 94.5%. Chance 94.5%

      Maybe it looks iracional, but It is possible calculate with "35%" instantly ("we are working with 35% as with non-percent number"):
      35 +(35 * 0.35) = 47.25
      Best and fastest calculation is 35 * 1.35 = 47.25
    • Hello Again!

      I would like to thank Majeszczak for his feedback.
      He noticed that in my total tincture needed table + in calculation inside spoiler is missing "upgrade fails".

      I already calculated with upgrade fails but I didn't inform you about that. Guide was updated :)



      EDIT: another update. Calculations of how many scrolls + potions do you need inside last spoiler had wrong text. I wrote about Tinctures, but actually it was about scrolls + potions
      EDIT: Important update! Few numbers in table of total tinctures needed were wrong. I fixed it!

      The post was edited 3 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • Laerze wrote:

      U can't calculate luck
      #rngesus
      You can't say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 when she start upgrade item from +15.
      But you can calculate expected average of tinctures she used on items, which she upgraded 100x from +11 to +24.
      Outcome of calculated expected avarage will be very close to true avarage.

      You can be very lucky in one day, then medium luckly tomorrow, then very unlucky.

      If you throw dice only 1x, 2x, expected average will be very inaccurate. But if you throw dice 100x then average will be very close with expected average.

      That is what I calculated.
    • Shiraella wrote:

      Laerze wrote:

      U can't calculate luck
      #rngesus
      You can't say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 when she start upgrade item from +15.But you can calculate expected average of tinctures she used on items, which she upgraded 100x from +11 to +24.
      Outcome of calculated expected avarage will be very close to true avarage.

      You can be very lucky in one day, then medium luckly tomorrow, then very unlucky.

      If you throw dice only 1x, 2x, expected average will be very inaccurate. But if you throw dice 100x then average will be very close with expected average.

      That is what I calculated.
      calculate my luck , in 1.5k+ tintures , I only got +21
      Aravi snack
      Fearu nuub
      Hunter 10-0 every class u idiot
      Kill willco he is afk eating chicken
      Araya u got a pet lama OH YEAH YEAH
      Hi my name is Pascal (sorry for bad English)

      youtube.com/channel/UCY1GIfRNb…lmvgWA?view_as=subscriber

    • Ok I am calculating. Maybe I will answear your question tomorrow, because I am busy and those calculations are bit complicated.
      Display Spoiler

      OMGGG I WANTED DO HALLOWEEN QUESTS!!



      I don't know which upgrading chain did you do, how many "+21" did you have, how many trying to upgrade item from +19,+20,+21,+22,+23 did you do etc. If you wanna more accurate number, I need more resources.

      btw thanks for feedback, I added this question into my guide.


      Updated guide info for all: I didn't inform you I calculated with multiple previous upgrading from +11 in "Total tinctures needed"
    • So, I have answear.
      You didn't write me more resources for my more accurate answear, so I suppose:

      1. You tried upgrade item +0. During your upgrading your goal was successfully upgrade item from +21
      2. During your upgrading you didn't get more than +21
      3. You was upgrading item during upp event +35%

      A)
      If you had good luck with upgrading chain, then your luck with upgrading item had strength maximaly 43% (so you needed sureness minimaly 58%)
      - in tables of total tinctures needed is calculation with sureness 50%. "log( 1 - sureness) / log ( 1 - chance of success)"

      So in table you see "928 tinctures needed", but if I will calculate with sureness 58% then outcome is 1660 tinctures needed

      B)
      If you had good luck with upgrading item, but very bad luck with upgrading chain, then you should check table of total tinctures needed with "Bad upgrading chain".
      Here you can see "4515 tinctures needed" and that is more tinctures than you used.

      You probably saw number 948+- instead of 4515. It was wrong number (but number of golds was right lol xD I wrongly copied numbers... Maybe I will create full microsoft excel auto calculator. Then I can upload it here if you all are interested. )



      Updated guide: Few numbers in tables of total tinctures used were wrong.

      The post was edited 4 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • I hate +19.
      It is tempting to upp from that number but chance is 3x lower.

      If you have lot of golds and lot of tinctures, you can try few times upp from +19. You have chance get it +22. By fail it should downgrade to +18. Depends how rich you are, if you have few hundreds of golds, then you can upp from +19 every time.

      But if you wanna just get it to +20 and you haven't lot of golds and tinctures, then it should be better downgrade it.

      The post was edited 4 times, last by Shiraella ().

    • Shiraella wrote:

      I hate +19.
      It is tempting to upp from that number but chance is 3x lower.

      If you have lot of golds and lot of tinctures, you can try few times upp from +19. You have chance get it +22. By fail it should downgrade to +18. Depends how rich you are, if you have few hundreds of golds, then you can upp from +19 every time.

      But if you wanna just get it to +20 and you haven't lot of golds and tinctures, then it should be better downgrade it.
      yea that was my thinking aswell, im not very rich and i better down to 18 and hope for a 21 with a pretty good chance , altho +22 costs 3x times ( maybe even more ) the chance is so slim from 19 imma pass xd