Hi guys!
I remaked this guide into better perfection!
Better calculations, better numbers! Less boring texts! Just my english is still bad... (I am sorry for that )
So Guys! Have you question how many survival tinctures do you need?
Upgrade or buy upgraded??? Are you interested to know what is better??
Let's reveal it!
btw. is it possible calculate someone's luck?
Display Spoiler
You can't say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 when she start upgrade item from +15.
But if she will try upgrade more than one items her outcomes will alternate between luck and unluck
So from calculations it is easily possible get only expected avarage
But she can have perfect luck twice in a row, then true avarage will be very different from calculated expected avarage.
That is true. But if she will upgrade 100 items then expected avarage will be very close to true avarage. With 1000000 items the calculated expected avarage will be very very accurate.
But still we cannot say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 tomorrow. The numbers from calculations aren't prophency, it is only expected (recommended number, how many tinctures you shall prepare).
Additionaly I am calculating with very important phenomenon, which I am calling "sureness". With 0% sureness Shiraella doesn't need tinctures. But because of 0% sureness She must have the highest luck (infinity) for her success.
Vice versa with sureness 100% she need infinity tinctures because of that 100% sureness.
So if you 2 days ago used 50000 tinctures and item wasn't even +21, then you had very very high unluck and in that moment your "sureness" for successful upgrading needed to be very high too.
Again I am not calculating how many tinctures do you will need tomorrow at 21:56, I am calculating overall how many expected tinctures could you need.
Tinctures per upgrade:
If you are feeling your luck is medium, here is table of "How many tinctures do I need" with sureness only 50% !!
What? Cursed by unluck? Ok, here is table with high sureness 70% (It is very high sureness. Numbers of tinctures needed will be crazy! 100% sureness = infinity tinctures needed!)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW MANY TINCTURES DO I NEED IN TOTAL FROM +11 TO +24 ??????
Is it worth buy serendipity potions x3? When should I use them?
Or is upgrading scam?! Is better buy upgraded?!!
ANSWEARS!!! Here we go!
Ideal upgrading chain: +11, +13, +15, +18, +21
If item is +12, use Scroll of Reflection!!
For successful "ideal upgrading chain" we need additional luck...
So into next table I will show you numbers of total tinctures needed with successful "Ideal upgrading chain" and with very bad upgrading chain (+11, +13, +14, +16, +18, +21).
AND THATS NOT ALL!!! You will see how many golds it cost and how good is using serendipity potions x3 with price 60g "From +18" and "From +21"
First Table is without upgrading event.
>>Numbers are total from +11 including upgrading fails<<
So if you are looking at line "From +21", it including multiple previous upgrading from +11
Here is table with UPGRADING EVENT +35%!
Tinctures: 1,3g
potion x2 + scroll: 0,200g
Serendipity potion x3: 60g
--------------------------------------------
So as you can see in tables there is short guide how to upgrade item with CHEAPEST WAY!!
1. Prepare good luck. How? I don't know, but you need atleast luck capable to roll atleast 4 with dice.
2. Even with bad luck DON'T USE serendipity potion x3 when you are upgrading item from +18
3. With upgrade event using serendipity potion x3 when upgrading from +21 is pretty big waste (in bigger event = bigger waste). It is usefull ONLY for cursed by cruel despair
4. Numbers +13, +15, +18, +21 are your best friends!
5. If you wanna +20, Total upgrades with finale from +17 is TWICE EASIER. But from +17 you can get semi-finished product +18, bad number +19 or your wanted number +20. This way is not bad, but can be.
6. If you really really wanna +24, maybe the best way is buy or prepare more items +21, lot of serendipity potions x3, lot of Assistent's formula (crafting this formula cost 46 well watters... So probably 200g per one) and wait for big upgrading event.
7. As you can see on tables, "upp event +35%". That percent looks too little, but actually it is very potent event which can save you hundreds golds even with bad luck.
8. +19 is very bad number. With success you can get +22, but it can be +21 or +20. Chance is 3x lower than upgrading from +18. I'd rather not recommend to upgrade from +19.
QESTION: Upgrade or buy upgraded?
MY ANSWEAR: Don't upgrade non-pvp items! Upgrading epic weapons and pvp gears is OK but I'm afraid it is not sure fast way to get rich. What do you think about that question?
If you wanna calculate with own numbers, use or check this:
Display Spoiler
1. How many tinctures do I need for single upgrading?
Log( 1 - sureness ) / log( 1 - chance of success × event modifier - chance of success × serendipity potion modifier )
sureness, chance and modifiers are in percentage, but you must write it in non-percentage. 100% = 1, 35% = 0.35, ....
Chance of success: if upgrade chance is 35%, then write 35
event modifier: if upp event +35%, then write 0.35!
Serendipity potion modifier: if you are using x2, then write 2
Here is where I found formula
Display Spoiler
We can calculate it by mathematical inequalities:
1-(0.3)^x >= 1-0.5
default chance 30%
modified by number of trying
for more chance
than 50%
For faster calculation we can edit mathematical inequalities to formula:
log(1 - 0.5) / (log(1 - 0.3)
2. How many total tinctures?
Display Spoiler
This is pretty complicated calculation, because this calculation includes upgrade fails. I spent pretty lot of hours to create easy calculation formula
From +13 you need 0.6 tinctures
From +15 you need 3.1 tinctures
From +18 you need 11.2 tinctures
a = 0.6
b = 3.1
c = 11.2
Total from +15 is: a + b(a+1) = 0.6 +3.1(0.6 + 1) = 5.56
Remember 5.56 as B (because we finished with letter "b")
Total from +18 is: B + c( B + 1) = ......
In words: previous outcome + number of tinctures for next upgrading phase × (previous outcome + 1)
And next phase and next phase until final upgrading. It is possible write only one calculation, but I think it will be more complicated
3. How many total potions and scrolls?
Display Spoiler
That is complicated too.
From +11 you must use it first time
From +13 you need 0.6 scrolls + potions
From +15 you need 3.1 scrolls + potions
From +18 you need 11.2 scrolls + potions
n0 = 1
a = 0.6
b = 3.1
c = 11.2
From +11: n0 = 1
From +13: previous outcome + a × previous outcome + a + 1 = 1 + 1×0.6 + 0.6 + 1
From +15: previous outcome + b × previous outcome + b + 1
etc..
etc.. until final upgrading
There is Excel auto-calculator without download needed
I uploaded original Microsoft Excel auto-calculator in better quality too, but you will need Microsoft Office. (Bonus table has been fixed)
I remaked this guide into better perfection!
Better calculations, better numbers! Less boring texts! Just my english is still bad... (I am sorry for that )
So Guys! Have you question how many survival tinctures do you need?
Upgrade or buy upgraded??? Are you interested to know what is better??
Let's reveal it!
btw. is it possible calculate someone's luck?
You can't say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 when she start upgrade item from +15.
But if she will try upgrade more than one items her outcomes will alternate between luck and unluck
So from calculations it is easily possible get only expected avarage
But she can have perfect luck twice in a row, then true avarage will be very different from calculated expected avarage.
That is true. But if she will upgrade 100 items then expected avarage will be very close to true avarage. With 1000000 items the calculated expected avarage will be very very accurate.
But still we cannot say how many tinctures will player Shiraella need at 21:47 tomorrow. The numbers from calculations aren't prophency, it is only expected (recommended number, how many tinctures you shall prepare).
Additionaly I am calculating with very important phenomenon, which I am calling "sureness". With 0% sureness Shiraella doesn't need tinctures. But because of 0% sureness She must have the highest luck (infinity) for her success.
Vice versa with sureness 100% she need infinity tinctures because of that 100% sureness.
So if you 2 days ago used 50000 tinctures and item wasn't even +21, then you had very very high unluck and in that moment your "sureness" for successful upgrading needed to be very high too.
Again I am not calculating how many tinctures do you will need tomorrow at 21:56, I am calculating overall how many expected tinctures could you need.
Tinctures per upgrade:
If you are feeling your luck is medium, here is table of "How many tinctures do I need" with sureness only 50% !!
WITHOUT EVENT | EVENT +35% | |||||
Upgrade | Luck potion x2 | Luck potion x2.5 | Luck potion x3 | Luck potion x2 | Luck potion x2.5 | Luck potion x3 |
From +13 | 0.6 tinctures needed | 0.3 tinctures needed | 0 tinctures needed | 0.4 tinctures needed | 0.1 tinctures needed | 0 tinctures needed |
From +14 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
From +15 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
From +16 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
From +17 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
From +18 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 6.5 |
From +19 | 34.3 | 27.4 | 22.8 | 29.1 | 24 | 20.3 |
From +20 | 34.3 | 27.4 | 22.8 | 29.1 | 24 | 20.3 |
From +21 | 34.3 | 27.4 | 22.8 | 29.1 | 24 | 20.3 |
From +22 | 34.3 | 27.4 | 22.8 | 29.1 | 24 | 20.3 |
From +23 | 17 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 10 |
What? Cursed by unluck? Ok, here is table with high sureness 70% (It is very high sureness. Numbers of tinctures needed will be crazy! 100% sureness = infinity tinctures needed!)
WITHOUT EVENT | WITH EVENT +35% | |||||
Upgrade | Luck potion x2 | Luck potion x2.5 | Luck potion x3 | Luck potion x2 | Luck potion x2.5 | Luck potion x3 |
From +13 | 1 tincture needed | 0.6 tinctures needed | 0 tinctures needed | 0.7 tinctures needed | 0.2 tinctures needed | 0 tinctures needed |
From +14 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
From +15 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3 |
From +16 | 8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
From +17 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 |
From +18 | 19.5 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 11.4 |
From +19 | 59.6 | 47.6 | 39.5 | 50.6 | 41.6 | 35.3 |
From +20 | 59.6 | 47.6 | 39.5 | 50.6 | 41.6 | 35.3 |
From +21 | 59.6 | 47.6 | 39.5 | 50.6 | 41.6 | 35.3 |
From +22 | 59.6 | 47.6 | 39.5 | 50.6 | 41.6 | 35.3 |
From +23 | 29.5 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 25 | 20.5 | 17.4 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW MANY TINCTURES DO I NEED IN TOTAL FROM +11 TO +24 ??????
Is it worth buy serendipity potions x3? When should I use them?
Or is upgrading scam?! Is better buy upgraded?!!
ANSWEARS!!! Here we go!
Ideal upgrading chain: +11, +13, +15, +18, +21
If item is +12, use Scroll of Reflection!!
For successful "ideal upgrading chain" we need additional luck...
So into next table I will show you numbers of total tinctures needed with successful "Ideal upgrading chain" and with very bad upgrading chain (+11, +13, +14, +16, +18, +21).
AND THATS NOT ALL!!! You will see how many golds it cost and how good is using serendipity potions x3 with price 60g "From +18" and "From +21"
First Table is without upgrading event.
>>Numbers are total from +11 including upgrading fails<<
So if you are looking at line "From +21", it including multiple previous upgrading from +11
Ideal chain | Bad chain | |||||
Upgrade | Tinctures | Potions + scrolls | Golds | Tinctures | Potions + scrolls | Golds |
From +11 | 0 | 1 | 0.2g | 0 | 1 | 0.2g |
From +13 | 1 | 3,2 | 1,94g | 1 | 3,2 | 1,94g |
From +15 | 5.5 | 17 | 10,5g | 23 | 64 | 41,9g |
From +18 | 78 | 220 | 145,4g | 482 | 1354 | 897.9g |
potion x3 | 53 | 151 | 539.7g | 330 | 927 | 1054.6g |
From +21 | 2787 | 7811 | 5185g | 17067 | 47845.7 | 31756.6g |
potion x3 | 1875 | 5255 | 4852.4g | 11483 | 32191 | 22729.9g |
Here is table with UPGRADING EVENT +35%!
Ideal chain | Bad chain | |||||
Upgrade | Tinctures | Potions + scrolls | Golds | Tinctures | Potions + scrolls | Golds |
From +11 | 0 | 1 | 0.2g | 0 | 1 | 0.2g |
From +13 | 1 | 2.8 | 1.78g | 1 | 2.4 | 1.78g |
From +15 | 4 | 14 | 8g | 15 | 46 | 28.8g |
From +18 | 52 | 153 | 98g | 278 | 819 | 525.7g |
Potion x3 | 37 | 110 | 462.4g | 200 | 590 | 770.4g |
From +21 | 1587 | 4656 | 2994.4g | 8420 | 24734 | 15893.2g |
Potion x3 | 1123 | 3296 | 3339g | 5961 | 17510 | 12470.4g |
Tinctures: 1,3g
potion x2 + scroll: 0,200g
Serendipity potion x3: 60g
--------------------------------------------
So as you can see in tables there is short guide how to upgrade item with CHEAPEST WAY!!
1. Prepare good luck. How? I don't know, but you need atleast luck capable to roll atleast 4 with dice.
2. Even with bad luck DON'T USE serendipity potion x3 when you are upgrading item from +18
3. With upgrade event using serendipity potion x3 when upgrading from +21 is pretty big waste (in bigger event = bigger waste). It is usefull ONLY for cursed by cruel despair
4. Numbers +13, +15, +18, +21 are your best friends!
5. If you wanna +20, Total upgrades with finale from +17 is TWICE EASIER. But from +17 you can get semi-finished product +18, bad number +19 or your wanted number +20. This way is not bad, but can be.
6. If you really really wanna +24, maybe the best way is buy or prepare more items +21, lot of serendipity potions x3, lot of Assistent's formula (crafting this formula cost 46 well watters... So probably 200g per one) and wait for big upgrading event.
7. As you can see on tables, "upp event +35%". That percent looks too little, but actually it is very potent event which can save you hundreds golds even with bad luck.
8. +19 is very bad number. With success you can get +22, but it can be +21 or +20. Chance is 3x lower than upgrading from +18. I'd rather not recommend to upgrade from +19.
QESTION: Upgrade or buy upgraded?
MY ANSWEAR: Don't upgrade non-pvp items! Upgrading epic weapons and pvp gears is OK but I'm afraid it is not sure fast way to get rich. What do you think about that question?
If you wanna calculate with own numbers, use or check this:
1. How many tinctures do I need for single upgrading?
Log( 1 - sureness ) / log( 1 - chance of success × event modifier - chance of success × serendipity potion modifier )
sureness, chance and modifiers are in percentage, but you must write it in non-percentage. 100% = 1, 35% = 0.35, ....
Chance of success: if upgrade chance is 35%, then write 35
event modifier: if upp event +35%, then write 0.35!
Serendipity potion modifier: if you are using x2, then write 2
Here is where I found formula
We can calculate it by mathematical inequalities:
1-(0.3)^x >= 1-0.5
default chance 30%
modified by number of trying
for more chance
than 50%
For faster calculation we can edit mathematical inequalities to formula:
log(1 - 0.5) / (log(1 - 0.3)
2. How many total tinctures?
This is pretty complicated calculation, because this calculation includes upgrade fails. I spent pretty lot of hours to create easy calculation formula
From +13 you need 0.6 tinctures
From +15 you need 3.1 tinctures
From +18 you need 11.2 tinctures
a = 0.6
b = 3.1
c = 11.2
Total from +15 is: a + b(a+1) = 0.6 +3.1(0.6 + 1) = 5.56
Remember 5.56 as B (because we finished with letter "b")
Total from +18 is: B + c( B + 1) = ......
In words: previous outcome + number of tinctures for next upgrading phase × (previous outcome + 1)
And next phase and next phase until final upgrading. It is possible write only one calculation, but I think it will be more complicated
3. How many total potions and scrolls?
That is complicated too.
From +11 you must use it first time
From +13 you need 0.6 scrolls + potions
From +15 you need 3.1 scrolls + potions
From +18 you need 11.2 scrolls + potions
n0 = 1
a = 0.6
b = 3.1
c = 11.2
From +11: n0 = 1
From +13: previous outcome + a × previous outcome + a + 1 = 1 + 1×0.6 + 0.6 + 1
From +15: previous outcome + b × previous outcome + b + 1
etc..
etc.. until final upgrading
There is Excel auto-calculator without download needed
I uploaded original Microsoft Excel auto-calculator in better quality too, but you will need Microsoft Office. (Bonus table has been fixed)
The post was edited 58 times, last by Shiraella: Fixed first Excel auto-calculator ().